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[Page 236]

be able to resume the offensive with fair prospects of success. If this course is decided on it will probably be found wider to abandon any further frontal attacks on Achi Baba and merely to hold the ground we have won, as the Achi Baba position would then fall automatically. But if men cannot be spared for the larger movement, why then, enough reinforcements should be sent to enable us to take the Achi Baba position step by step, even if it takes a very long time to accomplish. The task of landing another great army has become immesurably more difficult now that submarines have reached Eastern waters and, if it is attempted, we must be prepared to face heavy losses in ships. Of course, the intervention of Bulgaria would obviate this difficulty and we should have Gallipoli in a very few days. Even a well-timed diversion would probably lead to the break-up of the Turkish armies on our front.

As things stand at present, I do not see the smallest chance of our being able to clear the Peninsula, advancing from our positions at Anzac and Seddul Bahr. I think we are merely living in a fool's paradise. We May gain ground from time to time by sapping, but the campaign will drag on indefinitely and we shall certainly never realise our hopes of achieving a rapid success in the East which will have a decisive effect on the campaign in the West.

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