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[Page 13]

unrestricted piracy last February. Only 8 large ships were sunk last week, & only 20 submarines are at work at one time. Ludendorff in an army order urges "Economy in men is even more important than economy in munitions". Germany's "sacred union" is vanishing at the dawn of disaster. Her political concord has completely disappeared. German newspapers are preaching peace, & publish articles showing that victory is impossible, & urge the evacuation of Belgium which is the key to peace. Germany began a war of offence. She is now fighting a war of defence, and every day she becomes more fearful that she may be beaten. Military defeat would kill militarism. The rulers of Germany will move Heaven & earth to prevent their own destruction. With the prospect of commercial supremacy in a disorganised Russia it is possible Germany may be willing to offer a large proportion of what the Allies demand. No peace, whatever its terms, can have any value unless those terms ensure the impossibility of another German attempt to wreck the world.

Friday September 21. 1917. (1145)

A beautiful day.

I paraded sick again this

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